China Boulder (600176): Steady growth and sustainable advantages
Key points of the report describe the company’s revenue of 100 trillion, an annual increase of 16%, and a net profit of 23.
700 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.
4%; Q4 revenue was 24 million U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 8.
6%, attributable net profit 4.
600 million, down 22 a year.
Event commentary The profit level is stable and the performance growth is stable.
杭州桑拿The initial revenue increased by 16%, of which fiberglass and products revenue increased by 13%, due to the increase in volume and price. The reasons for the price increase include: 1) relatively stable after the initial price increase; 2) high-end such as thermoplastics and wind powerProduct share increased; 3) RMB depreciation.
The initial gross profit margin was still around 45%, of which the gross profit margin of glass fiber and products increased slightly from 46.
6% increased to 47.
The period rate is 15.
5%, down by 1 every year.
4 units, of which the financial expense ratio decreased by 1.
5 single, mainly due to the previous exchange gain contribution of 0.
In addition, an impairment loss on assets1 is accrued.
10,000 yuan, compared with 0 in the same period last year.
The final attributable net profit increased for ten years.
4%, achieving stable growth under the background of macroeconomic pressure.
Q4 performance fluctuations caused by asset impairment losses.
Q4 revenue grew 9% per year, and was affected to some extent by downward pressure on the macro economy; gross profit margin was about 45.
2%, a slight increase from Q3.
The period rate was previously increased by 1.
7 units, but up 5 from the previous quarter.
8 units (4, 3 units of management and financial rate increase), mainly due to the increase in depreciation and labor costs, the impact of exchange rate changes.
In addition, Q4 accrued 0.
The 9 billion USD asset impairment loss caused distortions in single-quarter results.
From a cyclical perspective: the margin of supply and demand will improve in the second half of the year.
In 2018, the global supplementary supply was about 90 indicators, and it is expected that in 2019, it will be close to 30 indicators, mainly in the first half of the year.
Considering the growth of the industry, it is expected that the margin of supply and demand is expected to improve in the second half of this year, and the overall glass fiber yarn price will help bottom out and stabilize.
From the perspective of competition: the catch-up effect of the old round of innovation is weakened, and the opening effect of the new round of innovation is enhanced.
The history of traditional glass fiber development is also a history of technological iteration. Its independent innovation is divided into two stages: first, the innovation of mainstream equipment and processes; second, the equipment process innovation and the initial upgrade of the formula;
We believe that equipment and process innovations are an increase in production efficiency and are prone to technology spillovers; however, formula upgrades and downstream requirements complement each other, and the market and customer barriers they form are more difficult to replicate.
Currently in the second stage of technology spillover, the industry cost curve has shifted downwards, which is the fundamental reason for the industry’s capacity expansion and distribution in the past two years.
As the catch-up effect of the last round of technological progress will decline (because the industry’s centralized cold repair is gradually coming to an end), and the pull-out effect of the new round of product upgrades has appeared, the global competition of Boulder will enter an enhanced stage.
EPS is expected to be 0 in 2019-2020.79, 0.
93 yuan, corresponding to PE14, 12 times, buy rating risk tips: 1.
Glass fiber production capacity exceeded expectations; 2.
Downstream demand has grown significantly.